1. Field of Invention
This invention relates to a method of determining or predicting by near infra red (NIR) spectroscopy properties of feeds or products and/or yields in physical or chemical processes or separations, in particular involving hydrocarbons, especially in hydrocarbon refineries or for lubricant uses, or chemical processes including polymerisation. The invention also relates to control of such processes.
2. Description of Related Art
NIR spectroscopy has many advantages over other methods of analysis e.g. in refineries and can cover a large number of repetitive applications accurately, quickly and on line. The NIR region between 800 and 2500 nm contains the totality of molecular information in the form of combinations and overtones from polyatomic vibrations, but Mathematical techniques are needed to exploit this information and to calculate the desired parameters. U.S. Pat. No. 5,490,085 (issued Feb. 6, 1996), U.S. Pat. No. 5,452,232 (issued Sep. 19, 1995) and U.S. Pat. No. 5,475,612 (issued Dec. 12, 1995), the disclosure of which is hereby incorporated by reference, describe the use of NIR for determining octane number of a product, or determining yields and/or properties of a product of a chemical process in a refinery or separation process from analysis on the feeds to that process, and yields and/or properties of a product of a blending operation again from analysis on the feed thereto.
At present, numerical methods described for modelling physicochemical properties based on NIR spectra are all of a correlative nature and involve relations of a regressional character between the property(ies) studied. Among these multivariable analyses are multilinear regression (MLR), Principle Component Regression (PLR), Canonic regression, and regression by Partial Least Squares (PLS). In all cases there is sought between the property and the NIR spectrum a relation which may be linear but is usually quadratic or of higher algebraic form involving regression coefficients applied to each absorption. The establishment of any regression requires a progressive calibration, as the approach is empirical and not supported by a theory.
These techniques have disadvantages, the chief of which is the need for establishing a strong correlation between the spectrum and the property, and their difficulty in dealing with positive or negative synergy between components contributing to that property. For example for determining chemical composition e.g. LINA (linear, isoparaffin, Naphthenic, Aromatics) in a hydrocarbon feed to a catalyst reformer, a PLS technique based on the NIR spectra has been described for use. The model works well on the calibration set but the response of the models when pure hydrocarbons are added e.g. cyclohexane is not satisfactory, as the model predicts changes in isoparaffins and naphthenes the reverse of that found experimentally Furthermore there are other practical difficulties, mainly in the need to identify samples of families having the same kind of relation between the spectra and the properties to be modelled. Thus the model may be limited especially with a non linear relation between spectrum and property. Especially when at the edges of the available data the accuracy of the model diminishes. The stability of the model is also a problem, as is the need when adding new standards to do laborious revisions to give the new model, especially when adjusting to a new feedstock for a process; thus testing 6 properties on 4 products leaving a distillation unit requires 24 models, each of which has to be changed for each change of the feed not included in the calibration.
We have discovered a new approach avoiding the above problems with correlations, and regression calculations, and being capable of being expanded automatically with use of a new product of different quality.